The 2026 F1 Belgian Grand Prix practice sessions have been a rollercoaster of surprises and revelations, with Red Bull showing promise despite recent choppy waters. The Milton Keynes outfit's pace over the second half of the lap during the opening practice session was particularly encouraging, suggesting strong medium-speed performance and extra speed while gasping for energy. However, the team's decision to remove its 'Macarena' wing to avoid airflow-reattachment issues has stirred up rumors about Max Verstappen's future. Will he stick it out at Red Bull? It's looking more likely, given the paucity of other opportunities on the grid.
One thing that immediately stands out is the performance of Kimi Antonelli, who has been a consistent favorite in the past three rounds. His long run was interrupted by a red flag, but he still managed to set the pace. However, the real question is whether he can be beaten. Pierre Gasly's shunt in FP2 wiped out over 10 minutes of the session, effectively cutting out the long runs. With the incomplete runs from FP2, it's hard to compare Verstappen's and Antonelli's performances directly.
In FP1, Verstappen logged a six-lap stint on the mediums, while Antonelli did an eight-lap stretch. Verstappen was, on average, 0.220s faster through the stint per lap in the first session. However, in FP2, Antonelli was 0.365s faster per lap on average over the Dutchman, but with a shorter stint overall. Throwing the two stints together, Verstappen is 0.091s per lap up on the Mercedes.
The improvement from session to session in Verstappen's car equated to 0.168s, while Antonelli's average went up by 0.755s. Taking Verstappen's first four laps of the FP2 stint to compare to Antonelli directly, the Mercedes is just over a tenth per lap clear. We'll have to wait for the indications from FP3 and if Mercedes makes a further step forward, but it is demonstrably close on this basis.
Antonelli's performance is particularly fascinating, as he has been a bumpy ride over the past three rounds, with issues at Barcelona and Silverstone severely denting his points tally. However, he has continued to excel, and his long run in FP1 was very strong. The real question is whether he can maintain this form throughout the race.
In terms of the broader implications, the Belgian Grand Prix is shaping up to be a straightforward one-stopper, with the difference between success and failure determined by the delta between the hard and the medium tyre. If a team can get the hards to run at medium-tyre pace in the opening stint on full tanks, then it leaves them in a very good place for the end of the race. However, Gasly's shunt in FP2 has thrown everything up in the air, and unpredictability is never a bad thing.
One thing that many people don't realize is that the Belgian Grand Prix is not just a straightforward one-stopper. The track's unique characteristics, such as the high-speed sections and the tight corners, make it a challenging and unpredictable race. The fact that the long runs were interrupted by the red flag highlights the importance of strategic planning and adaptability in F1.
In conclusion, the 2026 F1 Belgian Grand Prix practice sessions have been a fascinating display of speed, strategy, and unpredictability. While Red Bull has shown promise, the real question is whether they can maintain this form throughout the race. Antonelli's performance is particularly intriguing, and the shunt by Gasly has thrown everything up in the air. The Belgian Grand Prix is shaping up to be a thrilling and unpredictable race, and we can't wait to see what unfolds on Sunday.
